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Main arrow Archive of previous Issues arrow №1 2012 (23) arrow Trends of incidence and prevalence for the main classes of diseases among russian child, adolescent and adult population during the post-soviet period
Trends of incidence and prevalence for the main classes of diseases among russian child, adolescent and adult population during the post-soviet period Print
Monday, 19 March 2012

T.P. Sabgayda1, O.B. Okunev2
1Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Russian Federation, Moscow
2Moscow State Institute of International Relations of Russian Foreign Ministry, Moscow

Summary. A comparative analysis was done for morbidity in children, adolescents and adults during the post-Soviet period. The main classes of disease were analyzed from the perspective of possible exposure to risks. The use of statistical reporting form No12 as the data source was motivated. We analyzed data on incidence and prevalence among children, adolescents and adults in the Russian Federation for 1992-2010 years.

According to 2010 data, the structure of morbidity in children, adolescents, and the population of working and retirement age were analyzed. Correlation coefficients were calculated for the structure of incidence and prevalence among population of retirement age (aged 55 and older for women and aged 60 and older for men) with the structure of incidence and prevalence among children (<15 years), adolescents (15-17 years) and population of working age.

The basis for conclusion about the presence of environmental risk factors for public health was the rising incidence among child and adolescent of: digestive diseases, respiratory diseases, diseases of the endocrine system, genitourinary diseases, diseases of the musculoskeletal system, diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, the congenital anomalies, symptoms and signs of deviation from the norm. The basis for conclusion about appearance additional risk factor for the health of young people in the last decade was the discrepancy between trends in incidence among teenagers with the trends in incidence among children or adults for: digestive diseases, mental disorders, diseases of the endocrine system, genitourinary diseases, diseases of the musculoskeletal system, diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, diseases of the eye and adnexa, diseases of the ear and mastoid process, injury and poisoning. The basis for conclusion about insufficient medical help to people of retirement age were the lack of correlation between structure of incidence and prevalence among aging population, as well as the weak correlation between structure of prevalence among elderly and active adult population together with the strong correlation between structure of their incidence.

The next conclusions were done. The separation of information about incidence and prevalence among people of retirement age for analytical research in the field of population health is reasonable. There is a significant increasing in the risk of diseases, which are influenced by an environmental factors, for total Russian population as well as in risk of diseases, that are influenced by lifestyle and behavior, for teenagers. The performance of the methods of rehabilitation of patients and maintenance of chronic disease in remission is too weak in Russia, an availability of medical care for the elderly is not sufficient.

Key words. Dynamics of incidence, age-related changes of prevalence, social determinants of health, environmental risk factors for disease, the effect of energy drinks on the health of adolescents, access to health care, the incidence of aging people

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Comments (3)
1. 20-09-2012 19:46
Уважаемые авторы! Следуя вашим указаниям, я еще раз очень внимательно прочитал указанный вами раздел, ноне нашел там ничего об ограничении выводов! 
Кроме указанных недостатков статьи обращаю ваше внимание на еще один, о котором не в предыдущем комментарии: группировка возрастов, которую вы используете, очень неоднородна с точки зрения заболеваемости, которая, равно как и болезненность в разных возрастах в используемых вами возрастных группах различается даже не в разы, а в десятки раз. В любом учебнике статистики можно прочитать, что использование средних величин для неоднородных совокупностей бессмысленно, поскольку такие средние очень похожи на среднюю температуру по больнице. Понятно, весь дальнейший корреляционный и регрессионный анализ не сможет устранить эту особенность исходных данных. 
Еще раз извините за горькую правду.
Written by Ермаков СП ( This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ) (Guest)
2. 20-09-2012 16:05
К сожалению, комментатор невнимательно прочитал статью, в частности, раздел «Материалы и методы», где подробно излагаются ограничения исходных данных и следующие оттуда ограничения выводов.
Written by д.м.н. Сабгайда Т.П. ( This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ) (Guest)
3. 06-07-2012 17:02
Статья, в которой детальным образом анализируются бессмысленные данные. Авторы показывают, что они владеют методами анализа, но совсем не понимают сути проблемы. Дело в том, что величины показателей заболеваемости по обращаемости целиком определяются кадровыми возможностями амбулаторно-поликлинических учреждений по территориям. Поэтому ни о каких причинно-следственных зависимостях и речи быть не может. 
В то же время за рубежом проблему анализа заболеваемости/болезненности населения уже давно понимают по другому. Для того, чтобы разобраться в этом, наберите в Google слова "Global burden of diseases" или "DISMOD". Готов дать консультация по непонятным вещам в соответствующих ссылках, тем более, что свой е-майл я оставил.
Written by Ермаков СП ( This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ) (Guest)

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