V.Yi. Lisitsin, P.Yu. Fedchenko
Novgorod State University, Novgorod

Summary. The aim of the study is to analyze medical demographic indicators of Novgorod Region and to evaluate its changes occurred in 1991-2011 (using the concept of sustainable development)

Demographic situation and its trends in Novgorod Region in the period studied here were inferior to those of other regions of the North Western Federal District and of the Russian Federation as a whole. Population size decreased by 123.300 persons or by 16.4%. The most important factor of this reduction was migration outflow beyond the region, mostly taking up the working age groups. Measures adopted for instigating immigration proved to be insufficient as immigration size was not enough even to compensate for natural loss of the population. A significant unbalance between male and female population sizes persists especially in older ages. Ageing coefficient was 15.3%, while the level of 11% was generally named as utmost permissible one being the internationally established endpoint in evaluation of demographic sustainability. Coefficient of overall demographic burden was 664 persons per 1000 persons of the working population, including elderly burden 416 per 1000 of working population.

The continuous trends of fertility increase, declining mortality, growing life expectancy were noted favorable changes. Total fertility rate reached 1.45 in 2011 (from 1.12 in 2000), nevertheless, it was still 1.5-fold below the established minimal value of 2.15-2.17 accepted as a critical level for population replacement. Mortality was continuously decreasing in recent years amounting to 18.4‰ in 2011, noteworthy, in 1996 it was no less - amounting to 18.2‰, while in 1991 it was only 14.6‰, i.e. 1.3 times lower than in 2011. Presented significant gender differences manifested themselves in crude mortality – in general population, as well as in the working population. Being the main indicator of human potential life expectancy at birth in the region occupied just 89-th rank among the regions of the Russian Federation. In 2009 it was 64.5 years being 12.2 less than the critically permissible value adopted internationally, amounting to 76.7 years. Depopulation coefficients during the period were fluctuating above the critical value of 1.0 that clearly indicated the phenomenon of intensive depopulation, i.e. life extinction, set in the Novgorod region.

Nowadays it has been the demographic situation that obviously restrain the social economic development of the region.

Keywords. Demographic situation; fertility; death rate; life expectancy at birth; main mortality causes; fertility and mortality dynamics.

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