M.V. Avdeeva1,2, Yu.V. Lobzin1,2, V.S. Luchkevich 2
1 Research Institute for Children's Infections, St. Petersburg
2 North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov, St. Petersburg
Abstract. The article deals with the current issues related to
application of insurance principles to healthy lifestyle promotion and
public protection from chronic noncommunicable diseases.
The aim of the study was to develop regressive
mathematical model to predict demands for medical and economic resources
of the healthcare system for care delivery, depending on health status
and risk factors of noncommunicable diseases.
Methods. Data on 2007 patients and on their
health status and structure of the risk factors from the registration
forms #025-TsZ/u “Health Center Record” of the City polyclinic #109 was
analyzed. The study also used methods of situational and regressive and
mathematical modeling.
Results and scope of application. Analysis of
the process approach to the organization of preventive work within the
federal system of health centers helped to develop a tool to control
risk factors of noncommunicable diseases. This tool is based on the
formation among the population a self- perceived need for self-control
over risk factors, which is extremely important in the context of high
morbidity and mortality from noncommunicable diseases. According to the
analysis of public health and Program of state guarantees of medical
care we developed a predictive regressive mathematical model to
determine demand for medical and economic resources to ensure
prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation of chronic
noncommunicable diseases and their complications. The model is enhanced
with the «SCORE» scale, which allowed for its adjustment to the risk
management of behavioral and medical risk factors of noncommunicable
diseases.
Conclusions. The new approach to develop a
responsible attitude towards your own health management allows for
controlling risk factors of chronic noncommunicable diseases.
Keywords: disease risk factors; risk management; protection of
public health; compulsory health insurance; prevention of
noncommunicable diseases.
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