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Luzhetsky V.A.1, Dubovoy I.I.2, Pugach L.I.3 , Solovyov V.I.4
1 Department SAIH «Bryansk Regional Hospital ¹1», Bryansk
2 FSBEI HPE «Bryansk State University akad. I.G. Petrovskogo», Bryansk
3 FSBEI HPE «Bryansk State Technical University», Bryansk
4 FSBEI HPE "Smolensk State Medical Academy, " the Ministry of Health of RF, Smolensk.
Abstract. The increased incidence of the population of the
cancer of the larynx in the Bryansk region and the low rate of early
detection dictates the necessity of the development prevention measures,
what determines the relevance of the study.
The identification of the relationship of risk factors with the
incidence was done by comparing group data using the method of
correlation analysis, namely, by the calculation of the sample Pearson’s
correlation coefficient rxy . The reliability of the study results is
p=0.95 (the significance level is 0.05). The leading factors
characteristics were allocated, the importance of their influence on the
incidence of the malignant neoplasms of the larynx was determined, a
hierarchical scale of risk factors was created.
The reliable link with the primary incidence of the laryngeal cancer
in the Bryansk region has: the frequency of clinical supervision;
tobacco smoking; the level of material well-being; the factor of the
frequent overcooling of the body; the regular contact with fuels and
lubricants; the place of the parent’s work; the fact and the frequency
of alcohol consumption; professional factor; diet; having adverse
hereditary cancer history of the upper respiratory tract; the place of
birth. The mathematical-statistical model for determining the
probability of individual risk of cancer of the larynx was developed.
The screening test for the formation of groups of increased risk of
disease was proposed. Checking the functionality of the proposed methods
among the population in the control sample showed good results. The
gradation according the degree of the probability of occurrence of
individual risk of cancer of the larynx was developed.
Conclusions
The correlation between the incidence of cancer of the
larynx of the population and the prevalence of risk factors was
determined, the scale of factor characteristics was built.
The
obtained results allowed to propose a screening test and a mathematical
model to determine the magnitude of individual risk of cancer of the
larynx.
The check of the availability of the proposed method for the
formation of groups of the increased risk of laryngeal cancer among the
population in the control sample showed good results.
The method was
done for using in outpatient field of the healthcare to carry the
preventative work in order to reduce the primary incidence of the cancer
of the larynx.
Key words: the cancer of the larynx; risk factor; mathematical-statistical model; screening; prevention; clinical examination.
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