Allamyarova N.V., Alekseeva V.M.
I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow

Contacts: Natalya Allamyarova, e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Abstract. Study of morbidity and factors that affect morbidity and define health status is necessary to determine trends in health of the younger generation, consider efficiency of medical and rehabilitation measures, and plan different types of specialized care, as well as to better use material and staffing resources in healthcare, forecast morbidity, plan activities and improve health of sickly children.

The purpose was to assess specific influence of the complex of social, medical and demographic factors on health status of children and to develop forecasting tables to estimate individual risks of chronic diseases in young children living in orphanages.

Methods: multivariate analysis of variance, sequential Wald analysis.

Results: The authors proved that it is possible to forecast health status of children living in orphanages. Forecast scenario allowed to detect risk of some most common conditions at an early age, to estimate qualitative risk patterns and chances of disease becoming chronic in the context of orphanages.

The authors constructed forecasting tables of risk of diseases within the three first years of life depending upon individual composition of risk factors with due regard to peculiarities of a family where the child lived before orphanage.

Keywords: orphaned children and children without parental support; prediction of morbidity; risk factors; individual risk estimation of a disease; forecasting tables

References

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