DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2018-60-2-6

Nemtsov A.V.
V.Serbsky National Medical Research Centre for Psychiatry and Narcology, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow

Contacts: Nemtsov Alexandr, e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
Information about author: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1150-5146
Conflict of interests. The author declares no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments. The study had no sponsorship.

Abstract

Cardiovascular mortality accounts for over a half of the total number of deaths. Therefore, dynamics of these two types of deaths should be similar. However, in 2004-2016 trends in the total and cardiovascular mortality did not coincide. This was the starting point of the study.

Material and methods. Cardiovascular deaths in 2004-2016 were studied (a total of 14,297,000) in relation to the total number of deaths (a total of 26,344,665) based on the Rosstat operational data. When subtracting the number of cardiovascular deaths from the total number, the third indicator was obtained - other deaths.

Results. The study showed that during 2004-2016 the trend in cardiovascular deaths is close to rectilinear, while other deaths have complex curvilinear dynamics: a sharp decline in 2004-2011 followed by even a more dramatic growth after 2012. This dynamics of other deaths is determined by the inaccurate diagnosis of cardiovascular deaths: overdiagnosis in 2004-2011 (a total of 202.5 thousand or 2.0% of all cardiovascular deaths over this period), and underestimation of these deaths in 2012-2016, possibly along with a real reduction in the number of deaths (a total of 158.7 thousand or 3.8%).

Conclusion. Overdiagnosis until 2012 and a possible underestimation of cardiovascular deaths thereafter make evaluation of a real reduction in cardiovascular mortality a challenge. It is necessary to improve quality of coding of the causes of death to ensure adequate assessment of the national health.

Keywords: cardiovascular deaths; overdiagnosis; underestimation of mortality

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