V.V. Martirosyan, Yu.A. Krupskaya
Rostov State Medical University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Summary: Over the last decade of the XXI century Russia has developed a steady tendency towards increased incidence and mortality from stroke in working ages (over 30 %). To reverse the situation and improve treatment efficiency identification, prognosis and minimization of stroke-associated risk factors should become a priority.

Objective of the study was to identify statistically significant relationships between the Solar activity index, degree of weather irritating effects on human body and signs of stroke.

Methods. The research is based on results of the retrospective analysis of autopsy protocols on cerebral stroke deaths (1135 cases in total) for high solar activity years (2000-2002.) and low solar activity years (2008-2010) based on data from the City hospital # 1 of Rostov-on-Don. To quantify the degree of weather irritating effects on human body a general clinical weather pathogenicity index was used. Multidimensional method of logistic regression was used to identify relationships.

Results. As a result of the research, construction of a mathematical model identified seven endogenous factors reflecting signs of stroke and four exogenous factors from the weather pathogenicity index components with statistically significant relationship with the Solar activity index.

Fact congruency and gradation calculation by classification variable ("high" and "low") in the research data was provided in 92.4% of cases (Concordant). Coupling coefficient D-Sommer (Somers'D) was 0.851.

Conclusions. The developed logistic model allows for characterization of composition and structure of groups of patients died from stroke during low and high Solar activity years.

Key words: stroke, medical and sociological research, logistic regression, the Solar activity.

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