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V.F. Mazharov, Yu.A. Grigoryev, N.Yu. Plotnikov, O.I. Baran
Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases SB RAMS, Novokuznetsk
Summary. Huge stretches from North to South and the
heterogeneity of national economic development of the Krasnoyarsk
Territory have necessitated the allocation on the territory of the
socio-economic zones (SEZs) to account for the spatial specificity of
the population when forming measures of demographic policy.
Research aim: monitoring of demographic and medical and
demographic processes in the socio-economic zones for verification of
the measures of demographic policy and elaboration of the prognosis
scenarios.
Research objectives: the study on the dynamics of population
size and the features of population distribution due to spatial
organization of national economic complex in socio-economic zones of the
Krasnoyarsk Territory; the analysis of the age and sex structure of the
population, the proportion of the sexes and demographic burden in the
socio-economic zones; elaboration of the scenarios of the expected
changes in the age structure and population size at the
mezzo-territorial and macro-territorial levels.
Materials and methods: In accordance with the aims and
objectives of the study, were used cartographic and statistical methods
for data collecting, processing, and analyzing the information received.
We used census data of 1989, 2002 and 2010, as well as current
population of the Krasnoyarsk Territory in 2012, databases of Rosstat
and Territorial Authority of the Federal State Statistics Service of the
Krasnoyarsk Territory (Krasnoyarskstat).
Results. From 1989 to 2002 maximum decline in the population
was found in the Northern SEZ and Norilsk. Migration of the population
of the Krasnoyarsk Territory recently reduces, and since 2008, a steady
growth due to migration of Krasnoyarsk and the adjacent Central SEZ is
registered. In other zones migration population decline persists and
increases in the latitudinal direction, it is the minimum in the
Southern Zone and the maximum – in the Northern Zone. In 2012 there have
been positive changes in the proportions of the sexes in urban and
rural population. The growth in the number of children and subjects of
older than employable age has led to an increase in the total
demographic burden in urban and rural areas.
Conclusions. In the coming years more than a twofold decrease
in the number of females entering the reproductive age, while reducing
the number of births should happen. Under these conditions, the
prognosis of labour and reproductive potentials of the Krasnoyarsk
Territory is pessimistic. Extrapolating the expected changes in the age
structure and population size on the situation in socio-economic zones
it can be assumed that the most likely prognosis will be a decrease in
the population size in all the territories except Krasnoyarsk.
Key words: the Krasnoyarsk Territory, socio-economic zone,
dynamics and prognosis of the population size and distribution, age and
sex structure, demographic burden.
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