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Main arrow Archive of previous Issues arrow ¹5 2014 (39) arrow Dynamics of population size and the structure of the population in socio-economic zones of the Krasnoyarsk territory
Dynamics of population size and the structure of the population in socio-economic zones of the Krasnoyarsk territory Print
Tuesday, 25 November 2014

V.F. Mazharov, Yu.A. Grigoryev, N.Yu. Plotnikov, O.I. Baran
Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases SB RAMS, Novokuznetsk 

Summary. Huge stretches from North to South and the heterogeneity of national economic development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory have necessitated the allocation on the territory of the socio-economic zones (SEZs) to account for the spatial specificity of the population when forming measures of demographic policy.

Research aim: monitoring of demographic and medical and demographic processes in the socio-economic zones for verification of the measures of demographic policy and elaboration of the prognosis scenarios.

Research objectives: the study on the dynamics of population size and the features of population distribution due to spatial organization of national economic complex in socio-economic zones of the Krasnoyarsk Territory; the analysis of the age and sex structure of the population, the proportion of the sexes and demographic burden in the socio-economic zones; elaboration of the scenarios of the expected changes in the age structure and population size at the mezzo-territorial and macro-territorial levels.

Materials and methods: In accordance with the aims and objectives of the study, were used cartographic and statistical methods for data collecting, processing, and analyzing the information received. We used census data of 1989, 2002 and 2010, as well as current population of the Krasnoyarsk Territory in 2012, databases of Rosstat and Territorial Authority of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Krasnoyarsk Territory (Krasnoyarskstat).

Results. From 1989 to 2002 maximum decline in the population was found in the Northern SEZ and Norilsk. Migration of the population of the Krasnoyarsk Territory recently reduces, and since 2008, a steady growth due to migration of Krasnoyarsk and the adjacent Central SEZ is registered. In other zones migration population decline persists and increases in the latitudinal direction, it is the minimum in the Southern Zone and the maximum – in the Northern Zone. In 2012 there have been positive changes in the proportions of the sexes in urban and rural population. The growth in the number of children and subjects of older than employable age has led to an increase in the total demographic burden in urban and rural areas.

Conclusions. In the coming years more than a twofold decrease in the number of females entering the reproductive age, while reducing the number of births should happen. Under these conditions, the prognosis of labour and reproductive potentials of the Krasnoyarsk Territory is pessimistic. Extrapolating the expected changes in the age structure and population size on the situation in socio-economic zones it can be assumed that the most likely prognosis will be a decrease in the population size in all the territories except Krasnoyarsk.

Key words: the Krasnoyarsk Territory, socio-economic zone, dynamics and prognosis of the population size and distribution, age and sex structure, demographic burden.


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