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Begun D.N.
Orenburg State Medical University, Îrenburg
Abstract. In Russia, rheumatic diseases have been
characterized by a growth trend for the last twenty years. The Orenburg
region is part of the Volga Federal District which is considered an
unfavorable one in terms of rheumatic morbidity.
The purpose of the work is to study dynamics of
rheumatic morbidity in adult population of the Orenburg region in
2000-2013 and develop prognostic models.
Based on data extraction from the annual statistical reporting form
No. 12 from all districts of the Orenburg region dynamic rows on
prevalence and incidence of major rheumatic diseases were constructed
and analyzed: by class of diseases of the musculoskeletal system and
connective tissue in general, and by reactive arthritis, rheumatoid
arthritis, systemic connecting tissue disorders, an osteoarthrosis,
osteoporosis, and ankylosing spondylitis in particular.
Using analytical method we developed trend equations for the disease prevalence and incidence.
Prediction was made through extrapolation method on the basis of the
developed equations. Statistically significant reduction trends were
determined for class of diseases of the musculoskeletal system and
connective tissue in general, both for prevalence and incidence, and
growth trends for osteoarthrosis and osteoporosis prevalence and
incidence.
On the basis of the constructed regression equations the predicted
levels of the listed diseases were calculated for five years.
The revealed change in the morbidity trends as wells as rate of
change in the indexes cannot be explained by the natural causes.
Reduction in quality of diagnostics and morbidity registration due to
limited access to quality specialized care to patients with rheumatic
diseases is the most probable cause for the identified trends.
The study results can serve as a baseline for further in-depth
analysis of rheumatic morbidity at the district level in Orenburg
region, comparison of its dynamics with care organization and
improvement of planning at the regional level.
Keywords: rheumatic morbidity; morbidity with diseases
of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue; morbidity dynamics;
morbidity prediction.
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