DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2017-54-2-2
Maksimov S.A., Tabakaev M.V., Artamonova G.V.
Research Institute for Complex Issues of Cardiovascular Diseases, Kemerovo, Russia
Contacts: Sergey A. Maksimov, e-mail:
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Information about authors:
Maksimov S.A. http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0545-2586
Tabakaev M.V. http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1966-3985
Artamonova G.V. http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2279-3307
Acknowledgments.The study had no sponsorship.
Conflct of interests. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Abstract
Significance. Human health is largely affected
by population processes in the society, therefore, understanding and
evaluating factors that determine health and demographic trends are
extremely important. Statistical simulation is a frequently used method
in medical science to predict and identify impact of socio-economic
predictors on health indicators, including cardiovascular indicators.
Comparing simulated and actual health outcomes helps to estimate
probable impact of the existing socio-economic burden in the region.
The purpose of the study: to simulate cardiovascular
mortality according to socio-economic factors with subsequent grouping
of the Russian regions by the relation between actual and simulated
indicators.
Methods. Data on socio-economic indicators and
cardiovascular mortality in the Russian regions in 2012 were obtained
from official sources. Cardiovascular mortality was assessed by:
cardiovascular diseases, coronary heart diseases, cerebrovascular
diseases in the general population and in working age population.
For each type of cardiovascular mortality a regression analysis was
performed to simulate rates using socio-economic indicators as
independent variables. The resulting regression equations allowed for
calculating simulated (predicted) cardiovascular mortality in the
Russian regions. Then, the difference between the simulated and actual
indicators and its share (%) from the simulated mortality in the Russian
regions was calculated. A cluster analysis was used to group regions of
the Russian Federation according to the difference between simulated
and actual mortality
Results. Eight clusters (groups) of the Russian
regions that are similar in the difference size between the simulated
and actual mortality from diseases of the circulatory system have been
identified. The first four clusters consist of the regions with
predominantly positive trends, in which the actual mortality rate is
lower than the simulated one. The remaining four clusters represent
regions with mainly negative trends, i.e., the actual mortality is
higher than the simulated one.
Conclusion. Significant differences between the
actual and simulated mortality show that the set of social and economic
indicators analyzed in the study fails to fully explain rates of
cardiovascular mortality. There is a need for further selection of
predictors of population cardiovascular health.
Keywords: cardiovascular mortality; socio-economic indicators; Russian Federation regions; mathematical simulation.
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