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Friday, 19 May 2017

DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2017-54-2-2

Maksimov S.A., Tabakaev M.V., Artamonova G.V.
Research Institute for Complex Issues of Cardiovascular Diseases, Kemerovo, Russia

Contacts: Sergey A. Maksimov, e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
Information about authors:
Maksimov S.A. http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0545-2586
Tabakaev M.V. http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1966-3985
Artamonova G.V. http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2279-3307
Acknowledgments.The study had no sponsorship.
Conflct of interests. The authors declare no conflict of interest.


Significance. Human health is largely affected by population processes in the society, therefore, understanding and evaluating factors that determine health and demographic trends are extremely important. Statistical simulation is a frequently used method in medical science to predict and identify impact of socio-economic predictors on health indicators, including cardiovascular indicators. Comparing simulated and actual health outcomes helps to estimate probable impact of the existing socio-economic burden in the region.

The purpose of the study: to simulate cardiovascular mortality according to socio-economic factors with subsequent grouping of the Russian regions by the relation between actual and simulated indicators.

Methods. Data on socio-economic indicators and cardiovascular mortality in the Russian regions in 2012 were obtained from official sources. Cardiovascular mortality was assessed by: cardiovascular diseases, coronary heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases in the general population and in working age population.

For each type of cardiovascular mortality a regression analysis was performed to simulate rates using socio-economic indicators as independent variables. The resulting regression equations allowed for calculating simulated (predicted) cardiovascular mortality in the Russian regions. Then, the difference between the simulated and actual indicators and its share (%) from the simulated mortality in the Russian regions was calculated. A cluster analysis was used to group regions of the Russian Federation according to the difference between simulated and actual mortality

Results. Eight clusters (groups) of the Russian regions that are similar in the difference size between the simulated and actual mortality from diseases of the circulatory system have been identified. The first four clusters consist of the regions with predominantly positive trends, in which the actual mortality rate is lower than the simulated one. The remaining four clusters represent regions with mainly negative trends, i.e., the actual mortality is higher than the simulated one.

Conclusion. Significant differences between the actual and simulated mortality show that the set of social and economic indicators analyzed in the study fails to fully explain rates of cardiovascular mortality. There is a need for further selection of predictors of population cardiovascular health.

Keywords: cardiovascular mortality; socio-economic indicators; Russian Federation regions; mathematical simulation.


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