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Thursday, 09 July 2015

Begun D.N.
Orenburg State Medical University, ╬renburg

Abstract. In Russia, rheumatic diseases have been characterized by a growth trend for the last twenty years. The Orenburg region is part of the Volga Federal District which is considered an unfavorable one in terms of rheumatic morbidity.

The purpose of the work is to study dynamics of rheumatic morbidity in adult population of the Orenburg region in 2000-2013 and develop prognostic models.

Based on data extraction from the annual statistical reporting form No. 12 from all districts of the Orenburg region dynamic rows on prevalence and incidence of major rheumatic diseases were constructed and analyzed: by class of diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue in general, and by reactive arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic connecting tissue disorders, an osteoarthrosis, osteoporosis, and ankylosing spondylitis in particular.

Using analytical method we developed trend equations for the disease prevalence and incidence.

Prediction was made through extrapolation method on the basis of the developed equations. Statistically significant reduction trends were determined for class of diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue in general, both for prevalence and incidence, and growth trends for osteoarthrosis and osteoporosis prevalence and incidence.

On the basis of the constructed regression equations the predicted levels of the listed diseases were calculated for five years.

The revealed change in the morbidity trends as wells as rate of change in the indexes cannot be explained by the natural causes. Reduction in quality of diagnostics and morbidity registration due to limited access to quality specialized care to patients with rheumatic diseases is the most probable cause for the identified trends.

The study results can serve as a baseline for further in-depth analysis of rheumatic morbidity at the district level in Orenburg region, comparison of its dynamics with care organization and improvement of planning at the regional level.

Keywords: rheumatic morbidity; morbidity with diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue; morbidity dynamics; morbidity prediction.


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