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Main arrow Archive of previous Issues arrow ╣5 2016 (51) arrow POPULATION LOSS IN METROPOLIS IN THE CONTEXT OF MIGRATION (EXEMPLIFIED BY MOSCOW)
Tuesday, 01 November 2016

DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2016-51-5-5

1Semenova V. G., 2Ryazantsev S. V., 1Ivanova A. E., 1Lopakov K.V., 3Nikitina S.Yu., 1Zaporozhchenko V. G., 1Evdokushkina G. N., 4Gavrilova N.S.
Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow
Institute for Social and Political Research, RAS, Moscow
Rosstat, Moscow (Federal State Statistics Service, Moscow)
National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, USA

Contacts: Victoria G. Semenova, e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

The reported study was funded by:

  1. RFBR according to the research project ╣ 15-06-05410
  2. Moscow Healthcare Department (Government Contract #─-2981/15)

Abstract. Currently, migration has become one of the most pressing problems in the entire European region. Russia is no exception: in terms of migration flows, our country, according to the WHO estimates, currently takes the first place in Europe and second in the world. In Russia, Moscow is the most attractive region for migrants.

This situation makes extremely relevant the topic of impact that migration load makes upon medical and demographic situation in the capital.

Official statistics does not provide for differentiation between Muscovites and officially registered migrants, but allows for distinguishing unregistered (undocumented) migrants (internal or external). Mortality calculations are based on the number of resident (registered) population, but at the same time on deaths in de-facto population, including both loss in registered population, and in people not officially registered in the capital.

Thus, the available data does not provide for direct calculation of mortality rates among migrants (due to the missing data on their number), but allows to estimate the migration component (or quasi-migration) of the population loss in Moscow.

Therefore, this component defines the share of loss due to the unregistered migrants only.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate a migration component of population loss in Moscow across major age groups due to the leading causes of death, as well as mortality trends among resident population of the capital and its total population, including the unregistered migrants.

Standardized mortality rates were calculated based on information obtained from the Rosstat mortality impersonalized database in 2003-2014.

The analysis showed that currently, the migrants account for 50% of population loss in Moscow among infants under one year, for 40% - in children and adolescents, more than a quarter in males and 20% in females of the working ages. Impact of migrants on loss among older people becomes insignificant (about 6%).

In 2003-2014, migration component in population under 60 years significantly increased, while in older ages it remained almost unchanged.

Migration component is not confined to any particular cause of death: it accounts for loss among people under 60 years from all main classes of causes, however, the highest contribution of the unregistered migrants is reported for loss due to exogenous causes (injuries and poisoning, infectious diseases, symptoms, signs and conditions not elsewhere specified, diseases of the digestive system).

Migration load significantly slows down positive shifts in Moscow: in general, rates of positive trends in Moscow, as a rule, tend to be significantly lower than among people registered in the capital.

The extent of loss due to the unregistered migrants indicates differences in life expectancy among the registered and total population of Moscow: in 2014, the difference added up to 3.1 years in males (76.3 per vs 73.2 years) and 1.5 years in females (82.3 vs 80.8 years).

Keywords: migration; migration component of mortality; mortality; life expectancy; leading causes of death; megapolis; Moscow.


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