DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2019-65-5-7
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Ñòàòüÿ: Valery Chernyavskiy, Helmut Wenzel, Julia Mikhailova, Alla
Ivanova, Elena Zemlyanova, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic, Alexander
Mikhailov, Ulrich Laaser. Successful reduction of premature mortality in
the Russian Federation and the countries around the Baltic Sea working
together on health and Social Well-being. SEEJPH 2019, posted: 25
October 2019. DOI 10.4119/seejph-3129, ïóáëèêóåòñÿ ñ ðàçðåøåíèÿ
êîëëåêòèâà àâòîðîâ è ðåäàêöèè æóðíàëà South Eastern European Journal of Public Health.
Ïåðåâîä ñòàòüè íà ðóññêèé ÿçûê: Å.Â. Çåìëÿíîâà, Â.Å. ×åðíÿâñêèé.
Çàãëàâèå ñòàòüè, ôàìèëèè àâòîðîâ, àôôèëèàöèè, ðåôåðàò íà àíãëèéñêîì ÿçûêå ïîëíîñòüþ ñîîòâåòñòâóþò îðèãèíàëó.
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Âàëåðèé ×åðíÿâñêèé1, Õåëüìóò Âåíçåëü2, Þëèÿ Ìèõàéëîâà1, Àëëà Èâàíîâà1,3, Åëåíà Çåìëÿíîâà1,3, Âåñíà Áæåãîâè÷-Ìèêàíîâè÷4, Àëåêñàíäð Ìèõàéëîâ1, Óëüðèõ Ëààçåð5
1Öåíòðàëüíûé íàó÷íî-èññëåäîâàòåëüñêèé èíñòèòóò
îðãàíèçàöèè è èíôîðìàòèçàöèè çäðàâîîõðàíåíèÿ Ìèíçäðàâà Ðîññè, Ìîñêâà,
Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ
2Íåçàâèñèìûé êîíñóëüòàíò, Êîíñòàíö, Ãåðìàíèÿ
3Èíñòèòóò ñîöèàëüíî-ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ èññëåäîâàíèé ÐÀÍ, Ìîñêâà, Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ
4Áåëãðàäñêèé óíèâåðñèòåò, Ìåäèöèíñêèé ôàêóëüòåò, Èíñòèòóò ñîöèàëüíîé ìåäèöèíû, Áåëãðàä, Ñåðáèÿ
5Óíèâåðñèòåò Áèëåôåëüäà, Áèëåôåëüäñêàÿ øêîëà Îáùåñòâåííîãî çäîðîâüÿ, Áèëåôåëüä, Ãåðìàíèÿ
Ðåçþìå
Ïàðòíåðñòâî Ñåâåðíîãî Èçìåðåíèÿ â îáëàñòè îáùåñòâåííîãî çäîðîâüÿ è
ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ ÿâëÿåòñÿ ïëàòôîðìîé äëÿ äèàëîãà è
ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà ñòðàí Áàëòèéñêîãî ðåãèîíà. Îíî áûëî îñíîâàíî â 2003 ã.,
ðóêîâîäñòâóÿñü Öåëüþ 3 â îáëàñòè óñòîé÷èâîãî ðàçâèòèÿ «Õîðîøåå çäîðîâüå è
áëàãîïîëó÷èå» è Ñòðàòåãèåé Åâðîïåéñêîãî Cîþçà äëÿ ñòðàí Áàëòèéñêîãî
ðåãèîíà, ïðèíÿòîé â 2009 ã. Â äàííîé ñòàòüå àíàëèçèðóåòñÿ îáùèé ïðîãðåññ
Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè è Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîãî ôåäåðàëüíîãî îêðóãà, â
÷àñòíîñòè, â îòíîøåíèè ñíèæåíèÿ ñìåðòíîñòè.
Ìåòîäû: Èñïîëüçîâàíû ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûå ïî âîçðàñòó ïîêàçàòåëè
«ïîòåðÿííûå ãîäû ïîòåíöèàëüíîé æèçíè» (ÏÃÏÆ). Ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì ýòèõ
ïîêàçàòåëåé ïðîâîäÿòñÿ ìåæñòðàíîâûå ñðàâíåíèÿ è îöåíêè ïðîãðåññà âî
âðåìåííîì ðàçðåçå ïî êîëè÷åñòâåííûì ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèì öåëåâûì ïîêàçàòåëÿì
Öåëè 3 â îáëàñòè óñòîé÷èâîãî ðàçâèòèÿ «Õîðîøåå çäîðîâüå è áëàãîïîëó÷èå» è
Ñòðàòåãèè Åâðîïåéñêîãî Ñîþçà äëÿ Áàëòèéñêîãî ðåãèîíà. Âûïîëíåí àíàëèç
ðàçðûâîâ, ÷òîáû îïðåäåëèòü íàëè÷èå èëè îòñóòñòâèå îòñòàâàíèÿ â
äîñòèæåíèè öåëåâûõ èíäèêàòîðîâ.
Ðåçóëüòàòû: Ñ ó÷åòîì áàçîâîãî óðîâíÿ 2009 ã., ÿâëÿþùåãîñÿ
ðåëåâàíòíûì êàê äëÿ ïåðèîäà 2009-2020 ãã., òàê è äëÿ 2009-2030 ãã. –
Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ â öåëîì ìîæåò äîñòè÷ü äâå ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèå öåëè íà
2.7 ãîäà ðàíüøå. Â Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîì ôåäåðàëüíîì îêðóãå âûõîäÿùèå ê
Áàëòèéñêîìó ìîðþ ïîãðàíè÷íûå ðåãèîíû – Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðã è Êàëèíèíãðàä,
ñîãëàñíî ðàñ÷åòàì, äîñòèãíóò öåëåâûõ çíà÷åíèé íà 4.8 è íà 10.8 ãîäà
ðàíüøå íàìå÷åííûõ ñðîêîâ 2020 è 2030 ãîäîâ.  ñðàâíåíèè ñî ñòðàíàìè
Áàëòèéñêîãî ðåãèîíà Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ çàíèìàåò ïðîìåæóòî÷íóþ ïîçèöèþ
ïîñëå Ýñòîíèè, Ëàòâèè è Ôèíëÿíäèè. Áîëåå ðàííåå äîñòèæåíèå öåëåâûõ
èíäèêàòîðîâ ïîäòâåðæäàåòñÿ, åñëè áðàòü â ðàñ÷åò ïåðèîäû 2003-2020 è
2003-2030 ãîäîâ.
Îáñóæäåíèå: Õîòÿ ðåãèîí ïðîãðåññèðóåò, âîçìîæíî çàìåäëåíèå
òåíäåíöèé ê 2030 ã. Íåîáõîäèìî ïðîâåäåíèå áîëåå òùàòåëüíîãî àíàëèçà
òîãî, äî êàêîé ñòåïåíè àêòèâíîñòü Ïàðòíåðñòâà â îáëàñòè îáùåñòâåííîãî
çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ áóäåò ñïîñîáñòâîâàòü óñïåõó, è ÷òî
áóäåò ïðåäëîæåíî äëÿ óñèëåíèÿ âîçäåéñòâèÿ íà ïðåæäåâðåìåííóþ ñìåðòíîñòü.
Êëþ÷åâûå ñëîâà: Ñåâåðíîå Èçìåðåíèå, Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ,
Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíûé ôåäåðàëüíûé îêðóã, îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå,
ïðåæäåâðåìåííàÿ ñìåðòíîñòü, àíàëèç ðàçðûâà.
Êîíòàêòíàÿ èíôîðìàöèÿ: Ïðîôåññîð, äîêòîð ìåäèöèíû Ulrich
Laaser, Bielefeld School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld,
Germany; e-mail:
Ýòîò e-mail çàùèùåí îò ñïàì-áîòîâ. Äëÿ åãî ïðîñìîòðà â âàøåì áðàóçåðå äîëæíà áûòü âêëþ÷åíà ïîääåðæêà Java-script
Ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå. Èññëåäîâàíèå íå èìåëî ñïîíñîðñêîé ïîääåðæêè.
Êîíôëèêò èíòåðåñîâ. Àâòîðû çàÿâëÿþò îá îòñóòñòâèè êîíôëèêòà èíòåðåñîâ.
Äëÿ öèòèðîâàíèÿ: Âàëåðèé ×åðíÿâñêèé, Õåëüìóò Âåíçåëü, Þëèÿ Ìèõàéëîâà, Àëëà Èâàíîâà, Åëåíà Çåìëÿíîâà, Âåñíà Áæåãîâè÷-Ìèêàíîâè÷, Àëåêñàíäð Ìèõàéëîâ, Óëüðèõ Ëààçåð. Óñïåøíîå ñíèæåíèå ïðåæäåâðåìåííîé ñìåðòíîñòè â Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè è ñòðàíàõ áàëòèéñêîãî ðåãèîíà, ñîòðóäíè÷àþùèõ â ñôåðå çäîðîâüÿ è áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ. Ñîöèàëüíûå àñïåêòû çäîðîâüÿ íàñåëåíèÿ [ñåòåâîå èçäàíèå] 2019; 65(5):7. URL: http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/1113/30/lang,ru/ DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2019-65-5-7
SUCCESSFUL REDUCTION OF PREMATURE MORTALITY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
AND THE COUNTRIES AROUND THE BALTIC SEA WORKING TOGETHER ON HEALTH AND
SOCIAL WELL-BEING
Valery Chernyavskiy1, Helmut Wenzel2, Julia Mikhailova1, Alla Ivanova1,3, Elena Zemlyanova1,3, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic4, Alexander Mikhailov1, Ulrich Laaser5
1Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Russian Ministry of Health, Moscow, Russian Federation
2Independent consultant, Konstanz, Germany
3Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
4University of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Social Medicine, Belgrade, Serbia
5University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld School of Public Health, Bielefeld, Germany
Abstract
The ‘Northern Dimension on Public Health and Social Well-being’ is a
platform for dialogue and cooperation of countries around the Baltic
Sea, established in 2003, guided by the Sustainable Development Goal 3
on Health and Social Well-being and the Strategy for the Baltic Sea
Region of the European Union adopted 2009. In this paper we determine
the overall progress of the Russian Federation and its North West
Federal Okrug in particular, with regard to the reduction of mortality.
Methods: For the purpose of intercountry comparison and
progress over time we make use of age-standardised Potential Years of
Life Lost (PYLL) applied to quantifiable strategic targets, the
Sustainable Development Goal 3 on Health and Social Well-being and the
European Union Strategy of the Baltic Sea Region. A gap analysis is
performed to determine whether the target achievement is in delay or on
track.
Results: With reference to the baseline of 2009 -
corresponding to the most relevant recent period 2009-2020 respectively
2009-2030 – the Russian Federation as a whole is on track achieving the
two strategic targets in advance by 2.7 years. For the North West
Federal Okrug around St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad bordering the Baltic
Sea the target achievement is estimated to be 4.8 and 10.8 years in
advance of the deadlines 2020 and 2030. In comparison to the Baltic Sea
states the Russian Federation takes a middle position after Estonia,
Latvia and Finland. The early target achievement is confirmed if the
period 2003-2020 respectively 2003-2030 is considered.
Discussion: Although the region is progressing there may
be a slowdown towards 2030. A careful analysis is required to determine
to which degree the activities of the Partnership for Health and Social
Well-being have contributed to the success and what should be proposed
to increase the impact on premature mortality.
Keywords: Northern Dimension, Russian Federation, North West Federal Okrug, Public Health, Premature Mortality, Gap Analysis
Corresponding author: Prof. Dr. med. Ulrich Laaser;
Address: Bielefeld School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld,
Germany; e-mail:
Ýòîò e-mail çàùèùåí îò ñïàì-áîòîâ. Äëÿ åãî ïðîñìîòðà â âàøåì áðàóçåðå äîëæíà áûòü âêëþ÷åíà ïîääåðæêà Java-script
Acknowledgments. The study had no sponsorship.
Conflict of interests. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
For citation:Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Mikhailov A, Laaser U. Successful reduction of premature mortality in the Russian Federation and the countries around the Baltic Sea working together on Health and Social Well-being. Social'nye aspekty zdorov'a naselenia / Social aspects of population health [serial online] 2019; 65(5):7. Available from: http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/1113/30/lang,ru/ (In Rus). DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021-2019-65-5-7
Ââåäåíèå
Ñ 1999 ã. ñòðàíû ðåãèîíà Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ (ðèñóíîê 1) ïðåäïðèíèìàëè øàãè ïî ñîçäàíèþ ïëàòôîðìû ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà «Ñåâåðíîå Èçìåðåíèå» (ÑÈ) [1, 2], à ôàêòè÷åñêè ÷åòûðåõ ïàðòíåðñòâ â îáëàñòè êóëüòóðû, îêðóæàþùåé ñðåäû, îáùåñòâåííîãî çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ è òðàíñïîðòà. Ïàðòíåðñòâî Ñåâåðíîãî Èçìåðåíèÿ â îáëàñòè îáùåñòâåííîãî çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ (NDPHS) [2] áûëî ôîðìàëüíî óòâåðæäåíî íà âñòðå÷å 27 îêòÿáðÿ 2003 ã. â Îñëî, Íîðâåãèè íà óðîâíå ìèíèñòðîâ.  íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ ïàðòíåðñòâî îáúåäèíÿåò 10 ñòðàí, ñóùåñòâåííî ðàçëè÷àþùèõñÿ ïî ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñåëåíèÿ, èñòîðèè, ñîñòîÿíèþ çäîðîâüÿ è êóëüòóðå: Ýñòîíèÿ, Ôèíëÿíäèÿ, Ãåðìàíèÿ, Èñëàíäèÿ, Ëàòâèÿ, Ëèòâà, Íîðâåãèÿ, Ïîëüøà, Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ è Øâåöèÿ (èñêëþ÷àÿ Äàíèþ), à òàêæå ñîîòâåòñòâóþùèå ìåæäóíàðîäíûå îðãàíèçàöèè: Åâðîñîþç, Êîíôåðåíöèÿ ñóáðåãèîíîâ ãîñóäàðñòâ Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ, Èíñòèòóò Ñåâåðíîãî Èçìåðåíèÿ, Åâðîïåéñêîå ðåãèîíàëüíîå áþðî ÂÎÇ è íåêîòîðûå äðóãèå. Ïîä ðóêîâîäñòâîì ñåêðåòàðèàòà â Ñòîêãîëüìå, NDPHS ñîäåéñòâóåò äèàëîãó, ïðàêòè÷åñêîìó ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâó è ðàçâèòèþ [3] â äâóõ ïðèîðèòåòíûõ îáëàñòÿõ:
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Ñíèçèòü ðàñïðîñòðàíåííîñòü îñíîâíûõ èíôåêöèîííûõ áîëåçíåé, è
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Ïðåäóïðåæäàòü íåèíôåêöèîííûå áîëåçíè, ñâÿçàííûå ñ îáðàçîì æèçíè. Óïîð äåëàåòñÿ íà ñîäåéñòâèå ïðàâèëüíîìó ïèòàíèþ, çàíÿòèþ ôèçè÷åñêîé êóëüòóðîé, áåçîïàñíîìó ñåêñóàëüíîìó ïîâåäåíèþ, îáåñïå÷åíèþ áëàãîïðèÿòíîé ñîöèàëüíîé è ïðîèçâîäñòâåííîé ñðåäû, à òàêæå ïîääåðæàíèþ ôîðì äîñóãà, ñâîáîäíûõ îò óïîòðåáëåíèÿ àëêîãîëÿ, íàðêîòèêîâ è òàáàêà.
Çà äåñÿòèëåòèå 2010-2020 ãã. íàèáîëåå âàæíûìè îêàçàëèñü äâå ñòðàòåãèè ðàçâèòèÿ ðåãèîíà Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ:
I. Öåëè óñòîé÷èâîãî ðàçâèòèÿ, îñîáåííî öåëü 3 â îáëàñòè çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ [4]:
ÖÓÐ çàäà÷à 3.4, ê 2030 ã.: Ñíèçèòü íà îäíó òðåòü ïðåæäåâðåìåííóþ ñìåðòíîñòü îò íåèíôåêöèîííûõ çàáîëåâàíèé (ÍÈÇ) ïóòåì ïðîôèëàêòèêè è ëå÷åíèÿ, à òàêæå ñîäåéñòâèÿ ïñèõè÷åñêîìó çäîðîâüþ è áëàãîïîëó÷èþ.
II. Ñòðàòåãèÿ Åâðîïåéñêîãî Ñîþçà â îòíîøåíèè ðåãèîíà Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ (EU-SBSR), ïðèíÿòàÿ Åâðîïåéñêèì Ñîâåòîì â îêòÿáðå 2009 ã. [5]:
Ïëàí äåéñòâèé EU-SBSR ê 2020 ã.:
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Ñíèçèòü íå ìåíåå, ÷åì íà 10% ïðåæäåâðåìåííóþ ïðåäîòâðàòèìóþ ñìåðòíîñòü, âûðàæåííóþ â Ïîòåðÿííûõ ãîäàõ ïîòåíöèàëüíîé æèçíè (ÏÃÏÆ) â ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ.
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Ñíèçèòü íå ìåíåå, ÷åì íà 10% ðàçíèöó ìåæäó ìèíèìàëüíûìè (ëó÷øèìè) è ìàêñèìàëüíûìè (õóäøèìè) ÏÃÏÆ äëÿ ìóæ÷èí è æåíùèí â ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ.
Ðèñ. 1: Ãåîãðàôèÿ Ïàðòíåðñòâà Ñåâåðíîå Èçìåðåíèå â îòíîøåíèè çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ.
 ñòðóêòóðó ïàðòíåðñòâà âõîäèò Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ (ÐÔ), êàê ïîëíîöåííàÿ ñòðàíà-÷ëåí è, â ÷àñòíîñòè, åå Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíûé ôåäåðàëüíûé îêðóã (ÑÇÔÎ), ïðîñòèðàþùèéñÿ îò Áàëòèéñêîãî äî Áàðåíöåâà ìîðÿ, çàíèìàþùèé òåððèòîðèþ 1686970 êì2, âêëþ÷àÿ Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðã è Êàëèíèíãðàä.
Ðèñ. 2. Ãåîãðàôè÷åñêîå ïîëîæåíèå Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîãî ôåäåðàëüíîãî îêðóãà Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè
Ìû ïîïûòàëèñü ïðîàíàëèçèðîâàòü è îïðåäåëèòü, íàñêîëüêî äîñòèæèìû EU-SBSR è ÖÓÐ äëÿ ÐÔ â öåëîì è ÑÇÔÎ. Êðîìå òîãî, ìû ïîïûòàëèñü îïðåäåëèòü ðàíãîâîå ìåñòî Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè â äîñòèæåíèè öåëåâûõ çíà÷åíèé â ñðàâíåíèè ñ äðóãèìè ñòðàíàìè ðåãèîíà Áàëòèéñêîãî ìîðÿ. Äëÿ ÑÇÔÎ áûë ðàçðàáîòàí îòäåëüíûé ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèé ïëàí äåéñòâèé ïî ñîöèàëüíî-ýêîíîìè÷åñêîìó ðàçâèòèþ. Îí âêëþ÷àåò 109 ìåðîïðèÿòèé ñ ó÷àñòèåì îòâåòñòâåííûõ îðãàíèçàöèé ñî ñðîêîì çàâåðøåíèÿ â 4 êâàðòàëå 2020 ã.: 12 ìåðîïðèÿòèé îòíîñÿòñÿ ê çäîðîâüþ íàñåëåíèÿ, 3 èç êîòîðûõ êàñàþòñÿ çäîðîâüÿ ìàòåðè è ðåáåíêà (ìåðîïðèÿòèÿ 63, 68 è 74). Ìåðîïðèÿòèå 71 êàñàåòñÿ ïåðâè÷íîé ìåäèêî-ñàíèòàðíîé ïîìîùè, à 77-å - ÂÈ×. Ìåðîïðèÿòèÿ, êàñàþùèåñÿ çäîðîâüÿ, åñòü òàêæå è â äðóãèõ ðàçäåëàõ, íàïðèìåð, 79 è 80 êàñàþòñÿ îáñëóæèâàíèÿ ïîæèëûõ, à 81-å – ðåàáèëèòàöèè. Òàêæå ïðåäñòàâëÿåò èíòåðåñ ìåðîïðèÿòèå 40 ïî îñóùåñòâëåíèþ ïðîãðàìì òðàíñãðàíè÷íîãî ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà.
Ìåòîäû
Ïîòåðè ëåò æèçíè (ÏÃÏÆ) äî âîçðàñòà 69 ëåò âêëþ÷èòåëüíî ÿâëÿþòñÿ ïðåèìóùåñòâåííî ïðåäîòâðàòèìûìè. Èìåííî â ýòîì ñìûñëå ìû áóäåì äàëåå êàê ñèíîíèìû èñïîëüçîâàòü òåðìèíû «ïðåæäåâðåìåííûå» è «ïðåäîòâðàòèìûå» ïîòåðè. Ïîêàçàòåëü áûë ðàññ÷èòàí Vienonen et al. [6] äëÿ âñåõ ñòðàí, çà èñêëþ÷åíèåì Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè íà îñíîâå ìåòîäà Haenszel [7, ñ. 19], ò.å. ðàññ÷èòàíî «… ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé â òåîðåòè÷åñêîì ñòàíäàðòíîì íàñåëåíèè, ïîëó÷åííîå ïóòåì óìíîæåíèÿ ïîâîçðàñòíûõ êîýôôèöèåíòîâ ñìåðòíîñòè íà ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå». Äëÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèè áûëè èñïîëüçîâàíû êîýôôèöèåíòû 1980 ã. ñòàíäàðòíîãî íàñåëåíèÿ ÎÝÑÐ [8]. Äëÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèè ïî âîçðàñòó áûë ïðèìåíåí ïðÿìîé ìåòîä, ðåêîìåíäîâàííûé Armitage [9].
Âåðîÿòíîñòü äîñòèæåíèÿ öåëåâûõ çíà÷åíèé èíäèêàòîðîâ ÖÓÐ [4] è EU-SBSR [5] îïðåäåëÿåòñÿ âðåìåííûì ðàçðûâîì â èíäèêàòîðàõ (G), ò.å. âðåìåíåì, íåîáõîäèìûì äëÿ äîñòèæåíèÿ ñîãëàñîâàííîé öåëè â íàìå÷åííûé ñðîê, ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê ïðîìåæóòêó âðåìåíè ìåæäó ãîäîì íàáëþäåíèÿ è öåëåâûì ãîäîì. Ñ ýòîé öåëüþ ìû ïðèìåíèëè ìàòåìàòè÷åñêóþ ìîäåëü Ïðîãðàììû ðàçâèòèÿ Îðãàíèçàöèè Îáúåäèíåííûõ Íàöèé (ÏÐÎÎÍ), ïåðâîíà÷àëüíî èñïîëüçîâàâøóþñÿ äëÿ îöåíêè ïðîãðåññà â äîñòèæåíèè Öåëåé ðàçâèòèÿ òûñÿ÷åëåòèÿ (ÖÐÒ) [10]. Ñ äåòàëÿìè ïîäõîäà ìîæíî îçíàêîìèòüñÿ â ðàáîòàõ Bjegovic-Mikanovic et al. [11, 12]). Èñïîëüçîâàíû öåëåâûå çíà÷åíèÿ EU-SBSR äëÿ 2020 ã. ñ çàÿâëåííûì ñíèæåíèåì íà 10% [4] è äëÿ 2030 ã - íà 33%. [5]. Ïîñêîëüêó íåèíôåêöèîííûå áîëåçíè ñîñòàâëÿþò áîëåå 2/3 ïðåæäåâðåìåííîé ñìåðòíîñòè, ïðåäñòàâëÿåòñÿ îáîñíîâàííûì ïðèìåíèòü öåëåâûå çíà÷åíèÿ ÖÓÐ-3 äëÿ ìåæñòðàíîâûõ ñîïîñòàâëåíèé ïî ðàññ÷èòàííûì ïîêàçàòåëÿì ÏÃÏÆ.
Ïîëîæèòåëüíûé âðåìåííîé ðàçðûâ G óêàçûâàåò, ÷òî êîíêðåòíàÿ ñòðàíà íàõîäèòñÿ «íà ïóòè» ê äîñòèæåíèþ öåëè âîâðåìÿ èëè äàæå ðàíüøå íàìå÷åííîãî ñðîêà; îòðèöàòåëüíîå çíà÷åíèå óêàçûâàåò, ÷òî äîñòèæåíèå ìîæåò áûòü êàê «âåðîÿòíûì», òàê è «ìàëîâåðîÿòíûì» âíóòðè çàäàííûõ âðåìåííûõ ðàìîê, ò.å. ê 2020 è, ñîîòâåòñòâåííî, ê 2030 ã. Ñ÷èòàåòñÿ, ÷òî ñòðàíà ïî-ïðåæíåìó ñìîæåò äîñòè÷ü öåëåâûõ èíäèêàòîðîâ, åñëè îòðèöàòåëüíûå çíà÷åíèÿ íå ñîñòàâëÿþò áîëåå 25% îò îñòàâøåãîñÿ âðåìåíè (êîýôôèöèåíò ðàçðûâà). Êîýôôèöèåíò ðàçðûâà, óìíîæåííûé íà îñòàâøååñÿ âðåìÿ ñ ãîäà íà÷àëà íàáëþäåíèé, íàïðèìåð, 2020-2013=7 èëè 2030-2013=17 óêàçûâàåò íà ÷èñëî îñòàâøèõñÿ ëåò âïåðåäè èëè îòñðî÷êó äî öåëåâîãî ãîäà.  òàáëèöå 1 ïðåäñòàâëåíû ïîäðîáíîñòè ðàñ÷åòà, èñïîëüçóÿ 2013 ã. è Ðîññèéñêóþ Ôåäåðàöèþ â êà÷åñòâå ïðèìåðà. Äåìîãðàôè÷åñêèå äàííûå áûëè ïðåäîñòàâëåíû Öåíòðàëüíûì íàó÷íî-èññëåäîâàòåëüñêèì èíñòèòóòîì îðãàíèçàöèè è èíôîðìàòèçàöèè çäðàâîîõðàíåíèÿ Ìèíçäðàâà Ðîññèè (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1).
Òàáëèöà 1
Ðàñ÷åò Ïðåäîòâðàòèìûõ ïîòåðü ëåò æèçíè (ÏÏËÆ) äî âîçðàñòà 70 ëåò â 2013 ã. äëÿ Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè (ÐÔ)
Standardized death rates 2013 Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûå óðîâíè ñìåðòíîñòè 2013 ã.
Direct standardization Ïðÿìàÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèÿ |
|
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ) |
Ñòàíäàðò íàñåëåíèÿ |
|
|
|
|
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(OECD 1980) |
Ïîêàçàòåëü ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé â ñòàíäàðòíîì íàñåëåíèè |
ÏÏËÆ |
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû |
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di/pi |
Di =
ri * STD Pi |
Di *
(Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
18549 |
8793034 |
80269483 |
0.00211 |
169329 |
11429730 |
5-9 |
1878 |
7551502 |
84285393 |
0.00025 |
20961 |
1310070 |
10-14 |
1930 |
6755920 |
85828597 |
0.00029 |
24519 |
1409849 |
15-19 |
5479 |
7053780 |
87597591 |
0.00078 |
68041 |
3572160 |
20-24 |
15314 |
10409826 |
82619776 |
0.00147 |
121543 |
5773282 |
25-29 |
29730 |
12539043 |
77252661 |
0.00237 |
183166 |
7784539 |
30-34 |
44424 |
11503329 |
73604119 |
0.00386 |
284247 |
10659271 |
35-39 |
51039 |
10536321 |
61676142 |
0.00484 |
298765 |
9709877 |
40-44 |
53882 |
9656787 |
57394499 |
0.00558 |
320244 |
8806717 |
45-49 |
68120 |
9365912 |
54245506 |
0.00727 |
394538 |
8877095 |
50-54 |
111658 |
11310281 |
52537987 |
0.00987 |
518669 |
9076699 |
55-59 |
146852 |
10508048 |
48323994 |
0.01398 |
675337 |
8441714 |
60-64 |
177781 |
8819230 |
36727063 |
0.02016 |
740356 |
5552674 |
65-69 |
126245 |
4861125 |
36887734 |
0.02597 |
957986 |
2394966 |
Sum |
852881 |
129664138 |
919250545 |
0.00706 |
4777702 |
94798643 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 òûñ. ) |
|
|
520 |
10313 |
Ðåçóëüòàòû
 òàáëèöå 2 ïðåäñòàâëåíû ïðåäîòâðàòèìûå ïîòåðè ëåò æèçíè (ÏÃÏÆ) äëÿ Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè (ÐÔ). Äàííûå èñïîëüçîâàíû çäåñü äëÿ ðàñ÷åòà ðàçðûâà äëÿ öåëåâûõ ãîäîâ 2020 è 2030 (ïîäðîáíåå ñìîòðèòå â Ïðèëîæåíèè 2).
Òàáëèöà 2
Ñâîäíûå ðåçóëüòàòû ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûõ ïî âîçðàñòó ÏÃÏÆ äëÿ Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè íà îñíîâå ñòàíäàðòà íàñåëåíèÿ ÎÝÑÐ 1980 ã.
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû |
ÏÃÏÆ 2003 |
ÏÃÏÆ 2009 |
ÏÃÏÆ 2013 |
|
|
|
|
0-4 |
18229269 |
12183235 |
11429730 |
5-9 |
2215671 |
1612951 |
1310070 |
10-14 |
2146975 |
1681090 |
1409849 |
15-19 |
5589625 |
4317138 |
3572160 |
20-24 |
9726159 |
6893909 |
5773282 |
25-29 |
12106799 |
9949936 |
7784539 |
30-34 |
13094532 |
11961014 |
10659271 |
35-39 |
12824630 |
9977662 |
9709877 |
40-44 |
14212643 |
10036011 |
8806717 |
45-49 |
15208226 |
10587880 |
8877095 |
50-54 |
16014381 |
11134913 |
9076699 |
55-59 |
13353138 |
10139068 |
8441714 |
60-64 |
8350403 |
6339159 |
5552674 |
65-69 |
3546838 |
2902400 |
2394966 |
|
|
|
|
Ñóììà ÏÃÏÆ |
146619290 |
109716365 |
94798643 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïî âîçðàñòó íà 100 òûñ. |
15950 |
11935 |
10313 |
 òàáëèöå 2 ìû âèäèì âïå÷àòëÿþùåå ñíèæåíèå ïðåäîòâðàòèìûõ ïîòåðÿííûõ ëåò æèçíè ñ 15950 â 2003 ã. äî 10313 â 2013, ÷òî, ïðè ñîõðàíåíèè òåìïîâ ïîçèòèâíûõ òåíäåíöèé, äàñò ïîëîæèòåëüíûé ðàçðûâ â 2020 è 2030 ãã. è, òàêèì îáðàçîì, ïðèâåäåò ê áîëåå ðàííåìó äîñòèæåíèþ öåëåâûõ ïîêàçàòåëåé è âûõîäó íà 4 ìåñòî ñðåäè ñòðàí-÷ëåíîâ Ñåâåðíîãî èçìåðåíèÿ (òàá. 3).
Òàáëèöà 3
Àíàëèç ðàçðûâîâ â ñìåðòíîñòè â Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè è ñòðàíàõ-÷ëåíàõ Ñåâåðíîãî èçìåðåíèÿ
(EST (Ýñòîíèÿ), LAT (Ëàòâèÿ), FIN (Ôèíëÿíäèÿ), POL (Ïîëüøà), GER (Ãåðìàíèÿ), SWE (Øâåöèÿ), LIT (Ëèòâà), Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ
Ñòðàíû ïî ðàíãîâîìó ìåñòó â äîñòèæåíèè öåëåâûõ îðèåíòèðîâ 2009-2013
-2020 |
Èçìåíåíèå ðàíãîâîãî ìåñòà ñòðàíû
2009-2030
|
Áàçîâîå çíà÷åíèå 2009
All ÏÃÏÆ îò âñåõ ïðè÷èí ñìåðòè íà 100 òûñ. |
Ôàêòè÷åñêîå çíà÷åíèå
2013
ÏÃÏÆ îò âñåõ ïðè÷èí ñìåðòè íà 100 òûñ. |
Öåëåâîå çíà÷åíèå2020
(-10% îò óðîâíÿ 2013)
ÏÃÏÆ îò âñåõ ïðè÷èí ñìåðòè íà 100 òûñ. |
Öåëåâîå çíà÷åíèå 2030
(-33% îò óðîâíÿ 2013)
ÏÃÏÆ îò âñåõ ïðè÷èí ñìåðòè íà 100 òûñ. |
Ïîêàçàòåëü ðàçðûâà 2020 ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê áàçîâîìó ãîäó 2009 |
Ïîêàçàòåëü ðàçðûâà 2030 ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê áàçîâîìó ãîäó 2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) EST |
EST→1 |
6247 |
4979 |
4481 |
3319 |
0.557 |
0.299 |
2) LAT |
LAT→2 |
8247 |
6837 |
6153 |
4558 |
0.487 |
0.237 |
3) FIN |
FIN→3 |
3741 |
3115 |
2803 |
2077 |
0.477 |
0.229 |
4) RF |
RF→4 |
11935 |
10313 |
9282 |
6875 |
0.390 |
0.160 |
5) POL |
POL→5 |
5649 |
4901 |
4411 |
3267 |
0.379 |
0.152 |
6) GER |
GER→7 |
3219 |
3008 |
2707 |
2005 |
0.076 |
-0.021 |
7) SWE |
SWE→8 |
2670 |
2511 |
2260 |
1674 |
0.039 |
-0.038 |
8) LIT |
LIT→6 |
8351 |
7369 |
6632 |
4913 |
0.033 |
0.118 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LIT - SWE |
|
5681 |
4858 |
4372 |
3239 |
0.420 |
0.181 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ïîêàçàòåëè ðàçðûâà äëÿ Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê áàçîâîìó 2009 ãîäó ñîñòàâèëè - 0,39 ê öåëåâîìó 2020 ã. è 0,16 - ê 2030 ã., ÷òî ñîñòàâëÿåò 2,7 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ êàæäîãî öåëåâîãî ïîêàçàòåëÿ.
Åñëè 2003 ã. áûë ïðèíÿò çà áàçîâûé, òî àíàëèç ðàçðûâà ïîêàçûâàåò ñëåäóþùèå ðåçóëüòàòû:
ÏÃÏÆ 2003 / 100000 15950
ÏÃÏÆ 2013 / 100000 10313
Öåëåâîé ïîêàçàòåëü 2020 (-10%) = 9282
Öåëåâîé ïîêàçàòåëü 2030 (-33%) = 6875
Âåëè÷èíà ðàçðûâà 2020 = 0.62 (4.4 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ)
Âåëè÷èíà ðàçðûâà 2030 = 0.40 (6.8 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ)
 òàáëèöå 4 ïðåäñòàâëåíû äàííûå ïî Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîìó ôåäåðàëüíîìó îêðóãó (ïîäðîáíåå ñìîòðèòå â Ïðèëîæåíèè 3). Ïðîãðåññ çà 2003-2009 ãã. áûë î÷åíü ìåäëåííûì, íî ñóùåñòâåííî óñêîðèëñÿ â 2009-2013 ãã.
Òàáëèöà 4
Ñâîäíûå ðåçóëüòàòû ÏÃÏÆ äëÿ Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîãî ôåäåðàëüíîãî îêðóãà íà îñíîâå ñòàíäàðòà íàñåëåíèÿ ÎÝÑÐ 1980 ã.
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû |
ÏÃÏÆ 2003 |
ÏÃÏÆ 2009 |
ÏÃÏÆ 2013 |
|
|
|
|
0-4 |
15994997 |
9627834 |
8660105 |
5-9 |
2279635 |
2512981 |
1189746 |
10-14 |
2066224 |
2939012 |
1180353 |
15-19 |
5248957 |
5051446 |
2998759 |
20-24 |
9630348 |
7584853 |
4984555 |
25-29 |
13542067 |
12095659 |
6912712 |
30-34 |
15222446 |
16309283 |
10162831 |
35-39 |
15455366 |
16274079 |
9581213 |
40-44 |
17978711 |
17318045 |
8800723 |
45-49 |
18879238 |
16853065 |
9053049 |
50-54 |
19914378 |
18018859 |
9311518 |
55-59 |
15444599 |
17242066 |
8640291 |
60-64 |
9238993 |
12450710 |
5528433 |
65-69 |
3712069 |
6661087 |
2323054 |
|
|
|
|
Ñóììà ÏÃÏÆ |
164608028 |
160938978 |
89399.156 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïî âîçðàñòó íà 100 òûñ. |
17907 |
17508 |
9725 |
Äàííûå î íàñåëåíèè è ñìåðòíîñòè â òàáëèöå 4 ïî Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîìó ôåäåðàëüíîìó îêðóãó ïîçâîëÿþò íà îñíîâàíèè ðàñ÷åòîâ ÏÃÏÆ ïðåäïîëîæèòü äîñòèæåíèå öåëåâûõ çíà÷åíèé ê 2020 è 2030 (ñíèæåíèå ÏÃÏÆ, âîçðàñòà 0-69 ëåò, ïðÿìàÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèÿ ïî âîçðàñòó, ïîïóëÿöèîííàÿ áàçà 2003, 2009 è 2013 ãã.)
Áàçîâîå çíà÷åíèå 2009 (ÏÃÏÆ ÑÇÔÎ) 17508
Ôàêòè÷åñêîå çíà÷åíèå 2013 (ÏÃÏÆ ÑÇÔÎ) 9725
Öåëåâîå çíà÷åíèå 2020 (-10% of 2013) 8753
Öåëåâîå çíà÷åíèå 2030 (-33% of 2013) 6483
Ðàçðûâ 2020 0.69 ( 4.8 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ)
Ðàçðûâ 2030 0.64 (10.8 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ)
Åñëè 2003 ã. ïðèíÿò çà áàçîâûé, òî àíàëèç ðàçðûâîâ äàåò ñëåäóþùèå ðåçóëüòàòû:
ÏÏËÆ 2003 / 100000 17907
ÏÏËÆ 2013 / 100000 9725
Öåëåâîå çíà÷åíèå 2020 (-10%) = 8753
Öåëåâîå çíà÷åíèå 2030 (-33%) = 6483
Ðàçðûâ 2020 = 0.31 (2,2 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ)
Ðàçðûâ 2030 = 0.55 (9,3 ãîäà îïåðåæåíèÿ)
Îáñóæäåíèå
Ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê áàçîâîìó 2009 ãîäó – ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåìó íà÷àëó ïåðèîäà 2009-2020 è ñîîòâåòñòâåííî 2009-2030 – Ñåâåðíîå Èçìåðåíèå è âñå åãî ñòðàíû-÷ëåíû, âêëþ÷àÿ ÐÔ è ÑÇÔÎ, íàõîäÿòñÿ íà ïóòè ê äîñòèæåíèþ öåëåâûõ çíà÷åíèé â ñðîê (Øâåöèÿ è Ãåðìàíèÿ íåìíîãî îòñòàþò ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê öåëÿì ÖÓÐ). Ýòî ìîæíî ñ÷èòàòü óñïåõîì, â êîòîðûé âíåñëî ñâîé âêëàä Ñåâåðíîå Èçìåðåíèå â îáëàñòè îáùåñòâåííîãî çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ. Îäíàêî äëÿ âñåõ ñòðàí ïîëîæèòåëüíûé ðàçðûâ (óêàçûâàþùèé íà îïåðåæàþùåå äîñòèæåíèå öåëåâûõ ïîêàçàòåëåé) ìåíüøå äëÿ öåëåé ÖÓÐ ê 2030 ã., ÷åì ê 2020 ã. Ýòî ìîæåò ñâèäåòåëüñòâîâàòü î çàìåäëåíèè äèíàìèêè ñíèæåíèÿ ñìåðòíîñòè. Àíàëèç ïîäòâåðæäàåò ýòî, åñëè èñïîëüçîâàòü ñîîòâåòñòâåííî ïåðèîäû 2003-2020 è 2003-2030.
 òå÷åíèå ðàññìàòðèâàåìîãî ïåðèîäà Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ çàíèìàåò ïðîìåæóòî÷íûå ïîçèöèè ñðåäè ñòðàí-÷ëåíîâ Ñåâåðíîãî Èçìåðåíèÿ â îáëàñòè îáùåñòâåííîãî çäîðîâüÿ è ñîöèàëüíîãî áëàãîïîëó÷èÿ ïî ïîêàçàòåëÿì, ïðåäñòàâëåííûì â òàáëèöå 3, òîãäà êàê ÑÇÔÎ ìîæåò äàæå çàíÿòü ëèäèðóþùóþ ïîçèöèþ ñî ñâîèìè áîëåå ÷åì 12 ìèëëèîíàìè íàñåëåíèÿ, ñîñåäñòâóþùèìè ñ Ýñòîíèåé.
Ðèñ 3. Äîëÿ (%) ñìåðòåé ïî âîçðàñòíûì ãðóïïàì â Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè â 2003, 2009 è 2013 ãã.
Îãðàíè÷åíèÿ:
Ïðÿìîå ïðîåöèðîâàíèå ïðîøëîãî ïðîãðåññà íà áóäóùåå ìîæåò áûòü ìîäèôèöèðîâàíî ðåàëèÿìè èñòîðè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ñ íåïðîãíîçèðóåìûìè âìåøàòåëüñòâàìè êàê ïîçèòèâíîé, òàê è íåãàòèâíîé íàïðàâëåííîñòè. Îäíàêî, áîëåå ðàííåå äîñòèæåíèå öåëåâûõ ïîêàçàòåëåé ìîæåò ñòèìóëèðîâàòü ê ïðîäîëæåíèþ ïðîäâèæåíèÿ ïî ïóòè óñïåõà, òîãäà êàê îòñòàâàíèå äîëæíî ñòèìóëèðîâàòü íà íîâûå óñèëèÿ. ×òî êàñàåòñÿ öåëåé 2020 ã., òî áîëüøèíñòâî ñòðàí-÷ëåíîâ Ñåâåðíîãî Èçìåðåíèÿ óæå èõ äîñòèãëè îäèí-äâà ãîäà íàçàä, êàê è Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ. Ïðè ýòîì íàäî ó÷èòûâàòü, ÷òî â äàííîé ñòàòüå ìû ïðèìåíèëè öåëåâîå ñíèæåíèå ÖÓÐ-3 íà îäíó òðåòü ïî íåèíôåêöèîííûì çàáîëåâàíèÿì ê ïîêàçàòåëÿì ÏÃÏÆ, êîòîðûå íå â ïîëíîé ìåðå èñ÷åðïûâàþòñÿ íåèíôåêöèîííûìè áîëåçíÿìè (ñì. îïèñàíèå ðàçäåëà «Ìåòîäû»).
Äåÿòåëüíîñòü Ðîññèéñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà â ïîñëåäíåå äåñÿòèëåòèå áûëà îòìå÷åíà ñóùåñòâåííûìè èíâåñòèöèÿìè â çäðàâîîõðàíåíèå (îêîëî 10 ìèëëèàðäîâ äîëëàðîâ ÑØÀ â ãîä) ñ ôîêóñîì íà ðåêîíñòðóêöèþ ñòàðûõ ëå÷åáíûõ ó÷ðåæäåíèé, âêëþ÷àÿ ïðèîáðåòåíèå ñîâðåìåííîãî ìåäèöèíñêîãî îáîðóäîâàíèÿ äëÿ äèàãíîñòèêè è ëå÷åíèÿ. Ìîäåëü ïðåäîòâðàòèìîé ñìåðòíîñòè áûëà èñïîëüçîâàíà äëÿ àíàëèçà ïðè÷èí ñìåðòè, âûçâàííûõ íåäîñòàòêàìè äèàãíîñòèêè è ëå÷åíèÿ (ôàêòîð çäðàâîîõðàíåíèÿ), è ïðè÷èíàìè, ñâÿçàííûìè ñ ïîâåäåí÷åñêèìè ðèñêàìè (ôàêòîð îáðàçà æèçíè) [13]. Ñðàâíåíèå ðåãèîíîâ Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäà Ðîññèè è ñîñåäíèõ Åâðîïåéñêèõ ñòðàí ïîäòâåðäèëî, ÷òî áîëåå âûñîêèå óðîâíè ñìåðòíîñòè óêàçûâàþò íà áîëüøîé âêëàä ïðåäîòâðàòèìûõ ïðè÷èí, èõ äîëÿ ñîñòàâëÿåò îêîëî 50% íà Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäå Ðîññèè, âàðüèðóÿ îò 45% â Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãå äî 67% â Ïñêîâå è Íîâãîðîäå. Çäðàâîîõðàíåíèå âíîñèò âåñîìûé âêëàä â ñíèæåíèå ñìåðòíîñòè, îäíàêî íå èãðàåò âåäóùåé ðîëè.
Íà äàííûé ìîìåíò â àíàëèç ìû ìîæåì âêëþ÷èòü òîëüêî îäèí ôåäåðàëüíûé îêðóã, íî áûëî áû î÷åíü èíòåðåñíî ïðîàíàëèçèðîâàòü âñå ôåäåðàëüíûå îêðóãà íà îãðîìíîé òåððèòîðèè Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè. Ïîñêîëüêó Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ ãðàíè÷èò ñ áëèæíèì è Äàëüíèì Âîñòîêîì, ýòî ìîæåò ñïðîâîöèðîâàòü èçìåíåíèå äèíàìèêè â áîëåå ãëîáàëüíîé, à íå íàöèîíàëüíîé ïåðñïåêòèâå [14], îñîáåííî åñëè ñîâìåñòèòü ýòî ñ áîëåå òî÷íûì ðàçäåëåíèåì íà ïîäãðóïïû ïî ïîëó è ãðóïïàì áîëåçíåé.
Î÷åíü õîðîøåå ðàíãîâîå ìåñòî Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè è åå ÑÇÔÎ ÿâëÿåòñÿ âåñüìà ñòèìóëèðóþùèì, õîòÿ áóäåò òðóäíî ñîõðàíèòü äèíàìèêó óëó÷øåíèÿ, ïîñêîëüêó ñòàðò áûë ñ î÷åíü âûñîêèõ óðîâíåé ïðåäîòâðàòèìîé ñìåðòíîñòè â 2009 è åùå áîëåå õóäøèõ â 2003. Íåîáõîäèìî ó÷èòûâàòü íàöèîíàëüíóþ ñòðàòåãèþ. Òàêæå òåõíè÷åñêàÿ êîîïåðàöèÿ â ýòîé îáëàñòè ïðåäñòàâëÿåò âçàèìíûé èíòåðåñ äëÿ Åâðîïåéñêîãî Ñîþçà [15].
References
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- Chernyavskiy V, Mikhailova J. Russia: A key partner in the Northern Dimension Partnership. SEEJPH 2019, Vol. 12. DOI 10.4119/UNIBI/SEEJPH-2019-218
- The Northern Dimension Partnership on Health and Social Well-being (NDPHS). Available at: http://www.ndphs.org/?about_ndphs#Background_About_NDPHS
- United Nations: United Nations: The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2016. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2016/
- The EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EU-SBSR). Available at: http://edz.bib.uni-mannheim.de/edz/pdf/swd/2017/swd-2017-0118-en.pdf
- Vienonen MA, Jousilahti PJ, Makiewicz K et al. Preventable premature death (PYLL) in Northern Dimension partnership countries 2003—13. European Journal of Public Health, 2019. DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/cky278
- Haenszel W. A Standardized Rate for Mortality Defined in Units of Lost Years of Life. American Journal of Public Health (1950) (40):17–26.
- OECD. Total Population. Last updated 26-Jan-2016 3:42:32 PM (2016) [cited 2019 Aug 02]. Available from: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=POP_FIVE_HIST
- Armitage P. Statistical methods in medical research. Oxford u.a.: Blackwell (1971). XV, 504 S.
- UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. National Millennium Development Goals: A framework for action. Appendix 2 and Appendix 3. New York: UNDP office 2006. Page 107-11.
- Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Broniatowski R, Byepu S, Laaser U. A Gap Analysis of Mother, New-born, and Child Health in West Africa with Reference to the Sustainable Development Goals 2030. African Journal of Reproductive Health AJRH 2018: 22/4. DOI: 10.29063/ajrh2018/v22i4.13
- Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Salem ZA, Wenzel H, Broniatowski R, Nelson C, Vukovic D, Laaser U Laaser U. A gap analysis of SDG 3 and MDG 4/5 mortality health targets in the six Arabic countries of North Africa: Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania. Libyan Journal of Medicine 2019: 14/1. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/19932820.2019.1607698
- Ivanova A., Zemlyanova E., Zubko A. North-Western Russia and the neighbouring European countries: Comparison of mortality indicators and the role of healthcare. Poster presentations at the 21st Nordic Demographic Symposium 2019, Reykjavik, Iceland. Available at: https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c181d_aea08b56e9824985b872a1bfd94ce6a4.pdf
- Laaser U, Dorey S and Nurse J (2016). A plea for Global Health Action bottom-up. Front. Public Health 4:241. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2016.00241. Available at: http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpubh.2016.00241/full?&utm_source=Email_to_authors_&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=T1_11.5e1_author&utm_campaign=Email_publication&field=&journalName=Frontiers_in_Public_Health&id=209500
- European External Activity Service (EEAS). European Union and Russian Federation. Available at: https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/35939/european-union-and-russian-federation_en
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1: Äàííûå î íàñåëåíèè è ñìåðòíîñòè Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè â 2003, 2009 è 2013 ãã.
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1a: Íàñåëåíèå è ñìåðòíîñòü â Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè 2003
|
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû |
Âñå íàñåëåíèå |
Ìóæ÷èíû |
Æåíùèíû |
Îáùåå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé |
Ìóæ÷èíû |
Æåíùèíû |
00-04 |
6565695 |
3364592 |
3201103 |
22090 |
12754 |
9336 |
05-09 |
6818772 |
3486662 |
3332110 |
2868 |
1791 |
1077 |
10-14 |
9760069 |
4985362 |
4774707 |
4246 |
2778 |
1468 |
15-19 |
12669554 |
6432752 |
6236802 |
15399 |
11128 |
4271 |
20-24 |
11713409 |
5913034 |
5800375 |
29030 |
23001 |
6029 |
25-29 |
10717142 |
5360243 |
5356899 |
39519 |
31466 |
8053 |
30-34 |
9963892 |
4973305 |
4990587 |
47270 |
37095 |
10175 |
35-39 |
9888714 |
4863197 |
5025517 |
63268 |
49281 |
13987 |
40-44 |
12324267 |
5972742 |
6351525 |
110977 |
85938 |
25039 |
45-49 |
11777383 |
5564681 |
6212702 |
146751 |
111219 |
35532 |
50-54 |
10316215 |
4737479 |
5578736 |
179688 |
131720 |
47968 |
55-59 |
5976065 |
2638995 |
3337070 |
132107 |
91857 |
40250 |
60-64 |
7045054 |
2854945 |
4190109 |
213572 |
141469 |
72103 |
65-69 |
6718590 |
2573559 |
4145031 |
258403 |
155124 |
103279 |
00-69 |
132254821 |
63721548 |
68533273 |
1265188 |
886621 |
378567 |
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1b: Íàñåëåíèå è ñìåðòíîñòü â Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè 2009
|
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû |
Âñå íàñåëåíèå |
Ìóæ÷èíû |
Æåíùèíû |
Îáùåå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé |
Ìóæ÷èíû |
Æåíùèíû |
00-04 |
7793807 |
3994295 |
3799512 |
17525 |
10064 |
7461 |
05-09 |
6887915 |
3530220 |
3357695 |
2109 |
1273 |
836 |
10-14 |
6784360 |
3470481 |
3313879 |
2311 |
1416 |
895 |
15-19 |
9274152 |
4699081 |
4575071 |
8706 |
6073 |
2633 |
20-24 |
12354120 |
6242785 |
6111335 |
21702 |
16795 |
4907 |
25-29 |
11788055 |
5916062 |
5871993 |
35724 |
27844 |
7880 |
30-34 |
10751459 |
5306042 |
5445417 |
46591 |
36183 |
10408 |
35-39 |
9997601 |
4903848 |
5093753 |
49765 |
37620 |
12145 |
40-44 |
9307938 |
4493889 |
4814049 |
59185 |
44056 |
15129 |
45-49 |
11415509 |
5393625 |
6021884 |
99028 |
73183 |
25845 |
50-54 |
11292748 |
5136151 |
6156597 |
136765 |
98957 |
37808 |
55-59 |
9821361 |
4274188 |
5547173 |
164853 |
113724 |
51129 |
60-64 |
6497033 |
2694911 |
3802122 |
149520 |
100238 |
49282 |
65-69 |
5059895 |
1869565 |
3190330 |
159249 |
94717 |
64532 |
00-69 |
129025953
|
61925143 |
67100810 |
953033
|
662143 |
290890 |
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1c: Íàñåëåíèå è ñìåðòíîñòü â Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè 2013
|
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû |
Âñå íàñåëåíèå |
Ìóæ÷èíû |
Æåíùèíû |
Îáùåå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé |
Ìóæ÷èíû |
Æåíùèíû |
00-04 |
8793034 |
4513291 |
4279743 |
18549 |
10567 |
7982 |
05-09 |
7551502 |
3865465 |
3686037 |
1878 |
1120 |
758 |
10-14 |
6755920 |
3462420 |
3293500 |
1930 |
1234 |
696 |
15-19 |
7053780 |
3608295 |
3445485 |
5479 |
3930 |
1549 |
20-24 |
10409826 |
5300627 |
5109199 |
15314 |
12034 |
3280 |
25-29 |
12539043 |
6323822 |
6215221 |
29730 |
22980 |
6750 |
30-34 |
11503329 |
5734090 |
5769239 |
44424 |
33885 |
10539 |
35-39 |
10536321 |
5145842 |
5390479 |
51039 |
38699 |
12340 |
40-44 |
9656787 |
4689062 |
4967725 |
53882 |
39702 |
14180 |
45-49 |
9365912 |
4444475 |
4921437 |
68120 |
49808 |
18312 |
50-54 |
11310281 |
5204736 |
6105545 |
111658 |
80673 |
30985 |
55-59 |
10508048 |
4587151 |
5920897 |
146852 |
101408 |
45444 |
60-64 |
8819230 |
3635352 |
5183878 |
177781 |
118451 |
59330 |
65-69 |
4861125 |
1877877 |
2983248 |
126245 |
76787 |
49458 |
00-69 |
129664138
|
62392505 |
67271633 |
852881
|
591278 |
261603 |
Ïðèëîæåíèå 2
Ïîëíûé àíàëèç ðàçðûâîâ íà îñíîâå äåìîãðàôè÷åñêèõ äàííûõ Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè â 2003, 2009 è 2013 ãã.
Ïðèëîæåíèå 2a : Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûå êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè 2003, ïðÿìàÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèÿ |
Âîçð. ãðóïïû |
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ) |
Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
|
|
|
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(ÎÝÑÐ 1980) |
Êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå êîëè÷åñòâî ñìåðòåé (Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå) |
ÏÃÏÆ |
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di/pi |
Di =
ri * STD Pi |
Di * (Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
22090 |
6565695 |
80269483 |
0,00336 |
270063 |
18229269 |
5-9 |
2868 |
6818772 |
84285393 |
0,00042 |
35451 |
2215671 |
10-14 |
4246 |
9760069 |
85828597 |
0,00044 |
37339 |
2146975 |
15-19 |
15399 |
12669554 |
87597591 |
0,00122 |
106469 |
5589625 |
20-24 |
29030 |
11713409 |
82619776 |
0,00248 |
204761 |
9726159 |
25-29 |
39519 |
10717142 |
77252661 |
0,00369 |
284866 |
12106799 |
30-34 |
47270 |
9963892 |
73604119 |
0,00474 |
349188 |
13094532 |
35-39 |
63268 |
9888714 |
61676142 |
0,00640 |
394604 |
12824630 |
40-44 |
110977 |
12324267 |
57394499 |
0,00900 |
516823 |
14212643 |
45-49 |
146751 |
11777383 |
54245506 |
0,01246 |
675921 |
15208226 |
50-54 |
179688 |
10316215 |
52537987 |
0,01742 |
915108 |
16014381 |
55-59 |
132107 |
5976065 |
48323994 |
0,02211 |
1068251 |
13353138 |
60-64 |
213572 |
7045054 |
36727063 |
0,03032 |
1113387 |
8350403 |
65-69 |
258403 |
6718590 |
36887734 |
0,03846 |
1418735 |
3546838 |
Ñóììà |
1265188 |
132254821 |
919250545 |
0,01089 |
7390966 |
146619290 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 000) |
|
|
804 |
15950 |
Ïðèëîæåíèå 2b: Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûå ïîêàçàòåëè ñìåðòíîñòè 2009, ïðÿìàÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèÿ |
Âîçð. ãðóïïû |
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ) |
Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
|
|
|
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(ÎÝÑÐ 1980) |
Êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå êîëè÷åñòâî ñìåðòåé (Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå) |
ÏÃÏÆ |
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di/pi |
Di =
ri * STD Pi |
Di * (Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
17525 |
7793807 |
80269483 |
0,00225 |
180492 |
12183235 |
5-9 |
2109 |
6887915 |
84285393 |
0,00031 |
25807 |
1612951 |
10-14 |
2311 |
6784360 |
85828597 |
0,00034 |
29236 |
1681090 |
15-19 |
8706 |
9274152 |
87597591 |
0,00094 |
82231 |
4317138 |
20-24 |
21702 |
12354120 |
82619776 |
0,00176 |
145135 |
6893909 |
25-29 |
35724 |
11788055 |
77252661 |
0,00303 |
234116 |
9949936 |
30-34 |
46591 |
10751459 |
73604119 |
0,00433 |
318960 |
11961014 |
35-39 |
49765 |
9997601 |
61676142 |
0,00498 |
307005 |
9977662 |
40-44 |
59185 |
9307938 |
57394499 |
0,00636 |
364946 |
10036011 |
45-49 |
99028 |
11415509 |
54245506 |
0,00867 |
470572 |
10587880 |
50-54 |
136765 |
11292748 |
52537987 |
0,01211 |
636281 |
11134913 |
55-59 |
164853 |
9821361 |
48323994 |
0,01679 |
811125 |
10139068 |
60-64 |
149520 |
6497033 |
36727063 |
0,02301 |
845221 |
6339159 |
65-69 |
159249 |
5059895 |
36887734 |
0,03147 |
1160960 |
2902400 |
Sum |
953033 |
129025953 |
919250545 |
0,00831 |
5612089 |
109716365 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 òûñ.) |
|
|
611 |
11935 |
Ïðèëîæåíèå 2c: Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûå ïîêàçàòåëè ñìåðòíîñòè 2013, ïðÿìàÿ ñòàíäàðòèçàöèÿ |
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû
|
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ôåäåðàöèÿ) |
Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
|
|
|
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(ÎÝÑÐ 1980) |
Êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå êîëè÷åñòâî ñìåðòåé (Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå) |
ÏÃÏÆ |
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di/pi |
Di =
ri * STD Pi |
Di * (Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
18549 |
8793034 |
80269483 |
0,00211 |
169329 |
11429730 |
5-9 |
1878 |
7551502 |
84285393 |
0,00025 |
20961 |
1310070 |
10-14 |
1930 |
6755920 |
85828597 |
0,00029 |
24519 |
1409849 |
15-19 |
5479 |
7053780 |
87597591 |
0,00078 |
68041 |
3572160 |
20-24 |
15314 |
10409826 |
82619776 |
0,00147 |
121543 |
5773282 |
25-29 |
29730 |
12539043 |
77252661 |
0,00237 |
183166 |
7784539 |
30-34 |
44424 |
11503329 |
73604119 |
0,00386 |
284247 |
10659271 |
35-39 |
51039 |
10536321 |
61676142 |
0,00484 |
298765 |
9709877 |
40-44 |
53882 |
9656787 |
57394499 |
0,00558 |
320244 |
8806717 |
45-49 |
68120 |
9365912 |
54245506 |
0,00727 |
394538 |
8877095 |
50-54 |
111658 |
11310281 |
52537987 |
0,00987 |
518669 |
9076699 |
55-59 |
146852 |
10508048 |
48323994 |
0,01398 |
675337 |
8441714 |
60-64 |
177781 |
8819230 |
36727063 |
0,02016 |
740356 |
5552674 |
65-69 |
126245 |
4861125 |
36887734 |
0,02597 |
957986 |
2394966 |
Sum |
852881 |
129664138 |
919250545 |
0,00706 |
4777702 |
94798643 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 òûñ.) |
|
|
520 |
10313 |
Ïðèëîæåíèå 3: Äàííûå î íàñåëåíèè è ñìåðòíîñòè è ðåçóëüòèðóþùèå ÏÃÏÆ Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîãî ôåäåðàëüíîãî îêðóãà (ÑÇÔÎ) Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè â 2003, 2009 è 2013.
2003 |
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (ÑÇÔÎ) |
Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
|
|
|
Ïðèëîæåíèå 3a |
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(ÎÝÑÐ 1980) |
Êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé (Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
ÏÃÏÆ |
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû
|
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di/pi |
Di =
ri * STD Pi |
Di * (Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
1666 |
564500 |
80269483 |
0,00295 |
236963 |
15994997 |
5-9 |
244 |
564321 |
84285393 |
0,00043 |
36474 |
2279635 |
10-14 |
357 |
852259 |
85828597 |
0,00042 |
35934 |
2066224 |
15-19 |
1362 |
1193690 |
87597591 |
0,00114 |
99980 |
5248957 |
20-24 |
2787 |
1135751 |
82619776 |
0,00245 |
202744 |
9630348 |
25-29 |
4238 |
1027373 |
77252661 |
0,00412 |
318637 |
13542067 |
30-34 |
5264 |
954497 |
73604119 |
0,00552 |
405932 |
15222446 |
35-39 |
7347 |
952804 |
61676142 |
0,00771 |
475550 |
15455366 |
40-44 |
13686 |
1201468 |
57394499 |
0,01139 |
653771 |
17978711 |
45-49 |
18436 |
1191875 |
54245506 |
0,01547 |
839077 |
18879238 |
50-54 |
23048 |
1064075 |
52537987 |
0,02166 |
1137964 |
19914378 |
55-59 |
16456 |
643591 |
48323994 |
0,02557 |
1235568 |
15444599 |
60-64 |
21782 |
649414 |
36727063 |
0,03354 |
1231866 |
9238993 |
65-69 |
26624 |
661425 |
36887734 |
0,04025 |
1484828 |
3712069 |
Sum |
143296 |
12657040 |
919250545 |
0,01233 |
8395289 |
164608028.34 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 òûñ.) |
|
|
913.28 |
17906.76 |
2009 |
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (ÑÇÔÎ) |
Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
|
|
|
Ïðèëîæåíèå 3b |
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(ÎÝÑÐ 1980) |
Êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé (Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
ÏÃÏÆ |
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû
|
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di/pi |
Di =
ri * STD Pi |
Di * (Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
1178 |
662703 |
80269483 |
0,00178 |
142635 |
9627834 |
5-9 |
281 |
590035 |
84285393 |
0,00048 |
40208 |
2512981 |
10-14 |
335 |
561830 |
85828597 |
0,00060 |
51113 |
2939012 |
15-19 |
880 |
801242 |
87597591 |
0,00110 |
96218 |
5051446 |
20-24 |
2238 |
1157868 |
82619776 |
0,00193 |
159681 |
7584853 |
25-29 |
4207 |
1141931 |
77252661 |
0,00368 |
284604 |
12095659 |
30-34 |
6185 |
1046782 |
73604119 |
0,00591 |
434914 |
16309283 |
35-39 |
7872 |
969565 |
61676142 |
0,00812 |
500741 |
16274079 |
40-44 |
9872 |
899724 |
57394499 |
0,01097 |
629747 |
17318045 |
45-49 |
15352 |
1111823 |
54245506 |
0,01381 |
749025 |
16853065 |
50-54 |
22146 |
1129981 |
52537987 |
0,01960 |
1029649 |
18018859 |
55-59 |
28516 |
999024 |
48323994 |
0,02854 |
1379365 |
17242066 |
60-64 |
31156 |
689278 |
36727063 |
0,04520 |
1660095 |
12450710 |
65-69 |
33458 |
463209 |
36887734 |
0,07223 |
2664435 |
6661087 |
Sum |
163675 |
12224992 |
919250545 |
0,01528 |
9822430 |
160938978.09 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 òûñ.) |
|
|
1068.53 |
17507.63 |
2013 |
Èññëåäóåìîå íàñåëåíèå (ÑÇÔÎ) |
Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
|
|
|
Ïðèëîæåíèå 3ñ |
×èñëî ñìåðòåé |
×èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ |
(ÎÝÑÐ 1980) |
Êîýôôèöèåíòû ñìåðòíîñòè |
Îæèäàåìîå ÷èñëî ñìåðòåé (Ñòàíäàðòíîå íàñåëåíèå |
ÏÃÏÆ |
Âîçðàñòíûå ãðóïïû
|
di |
pi |
STD Pi |
ri = di / pi |
Di = ri * STD Pi |
Di * (Íåäîæèòîå ÷èñëî ëåò äî âåðõíåé âîçðàñòíîé ãðàíèöû) |
0-4 |
1220 |
757156 |
80269483 |
0.00161 |
129362 |
8731919 |
5-9 |
145 |
642852 |
84285393 |
0.00023 |
19036 |
1189746 |
10-14 |
137 |
573546 |
85828597 |
0.00024 |
20528 |
1180353 |
15-19 |
394 |
603558 |
87597591 |
0.00065 |
57119 |
2998759 |
20-24 |
1252 |
985677 |
82619776 |
0.00127 |
104938 |
4984555 |
25-29 |
2587 |
1228690 |
77252661 |
0.00211 |
162652 |
6912712 |
30-34 |
4193 |
1138908 |
73604119 |
0.00368 |
271009 |
10162831 |
35-39 |
4956 |
1036737 |
61676142 |
0.00478 |
294807 |
9581213 |
40-44 |
5259 |
943130 |
57394499 |
0.00558 |
320026 |
8800723 |
45-49 |
6779 |
913922 |
54245506 |
0.00742 |
402358 |
9053049 |
50-54 |
11182 |
1104138 |
52537987 |
0.01013 |
532087 |
9311518 |
55-59 |
15070 |
1053570 |
48323994 |
0.01430 |
691223 |
8640291 |
60-64 |
17942 |
893981 |
36727063 |
0.02007 |
737124 |
5528433 |
65-69 |
13078 |
519162 |
36887734 |
0.02519 |
929222 |
2323054 |
Sum |
84195 |
12395023 |
919250545 |
0.00695 |
4671490 |
89399155.82 |
Ñòàíäàðòèçîâàííûé ïîêàçàòåëü (íà 100 òûñ.) |
|
|
508.18 |
9725.22 |
Äàòà ïîñòóïëåíèÿ: 25.10.2019
Ïðîñìîòðîâ: 5487
|