V.S. Efimov¹, B.E. Gorny², V.F. Mazharov^2
1 - Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk
² - Laboratory of Medical and Social Problems Research Institute of Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases, Siberian Medical Sciences, Novokuznetsk

Summary. The article discusses the results of a Delphi survey of experts, composed of doctors and managers of health institutions, government representatives, university professors and community experts.

On the basis of expert assessments determined group of indices that characterize the likelihood and significance of isolated trends, critical situations and emerging technologies in the field of health in Krasnoyarsk region for the period until 2030. Just indexes were determined relevance and feasibility of characterizing the proposed management decisions.

According to experts, the population of the region will concentrate in the cities, the spread will be psychosomatic illnesses, increase the proportion of working seniors, and may not increase the number of patients with alcoholism, drug addiction and HIV infection. Will be organized major clinical diagnostic centers will be further development of telemedicine to increase the role of emergency, mobile, transient medicine will e-passport of a citizen's health. There will be a social diversification of the health care system - formed sector of medicine for the poor and medicine for the rich to spread the practice of self-treatment of citizens with Internet resources.

But this is not implemented the policy of economic and social promotion of healthy lifestyles and to continue the irresponsibility of the citizens about their health.

With high probability the health of the Krasnoyarsk region in 2010-2030 years systemic crisis will occur, which will include crisis management, human resources crisis, and infrastructure.

In the technology area will continue and possibly intensify the trend to the introduction of technologies already developed low-impact surgery, diagnostic technologies and the provision of health technologies for health. But the Krasnoyarsk region remain outside the zone of distribution of promising new technologies.

In the field of management experts see two dire need of modernization level - the transition to a new strategy to preserve and strengthen health and to stimulate the birth rate in rural areas.

Critical assessment of the experts to change the strategic direction of health care indicates a lack of internal resources and internal dynamics, which could, without external "crisis management" lead to necessary modernization.

Keywords. Foresight, Delphi survey, health care policy

References

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